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NoSkillcape
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<a href="../../m%3dadventurers-log/display_player_profilee249.html?searchName=NoSkillcape" class="avatarlink"><img src="../../m%3davatar-rs/avatar15aa.gif" class="avatar" alt=""/></a>
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02-May-2010 01:43:46
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<br/>Last edited on 23-Jun-2010 23:02:38 by NoSkillcape
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New: <br>6/23: Its my birthday and I will be spending the day having fun and the next recovering! <img class="sm6" alt=":D" title=":D" src="../../../site/img/blk.gif" /> <br>5/21: Section 5: The "1x Test" added. <br>5/5: Tip #9 and "Section 6: Sniping" added-TY Sir Caloden <br>5/4: "Long Flipping" And Emergency Scenario #3 <br> <br>Wezall2002's Merchanting Guide <br> <br>This guide is completely original and those who wish to repost need to ask permission first so that I dont report them. The guide is organized in order of necessity, starting with basics and progressing to obscure. <br> <br>Clan Chats: <br> <br>Cellerdoor: A good chat for advice on general strategies, very few item suggestions, but many experienced(1 year+) flippers. <br> <br>This chat is run by a friend of mine. Please be respectful of him, his rules and his officers. Also, please do not repeatedly demand either attention or answers. Remember that we are players with goals as well. I will also never give out my current items to strangers because that is the fasest way to destroy the profitability of an item, as well as preventing you from learning by yourself. <br> <br>Contents: <br> <br>Section 1: My Credentials and Acknowledgements <br>Section 2: The Persuasion <br>Section 3: Flipping Walkthrough <br>Section 4: Flipping Strategies and Tips <br>Section 5: The "1x Test" <br>Section 6: Flipping Emergencies and GE Limits <br>Section 7: Investing <br>Section 7a: Flip Investing <br>Section 7b: Strategic Investing <br>Section 7c: GE/Forum Watching <br>Section 7d: Graph completion <br>Section 7e: Update-Based Investment <br>Section 7f: Junk buyouts/Manipulation <br>Section 8: Guide to "Sniping" Above-GE Items, By Sir Caloden <br>Section 9: Proofs/Equations, Vocabulary and Misc. Information
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02-May-2010 01:43:56
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<br/>Last edited on 05-May-2010 08:42:58 by NoSkillcape
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Section 1: My Credentials and Acknowledgements <br> <br>My Credentials: <br> <br>I started using the G.E. to make money on January 28th of 2008. At the time I had approximatrly 8mil, as well as my trusty whip. At first my profits were minimal because I did not know what I was doing and I was too lazy to make my own graphs. By the time the G.E. Database came out in April I had about 15-20mil and by June I had 60mil, but had stopped flipping for a while due to my belief that it was too easy, as well as my summer job taking up too much time. <br> <br>I skilled until early August, at which time I invested in top hats and lost 15 mil. At this point I was down to 35-40mil and wanted to get more money, so I started flipping again. By the end of August I was up to 90mil, including one 3-day period in which I made a 50% profit (30mil). By my estimate I have made over 1bil on merchanting in the last 2 years and currently have a a net worth of about 750 mil. <br> <br>In addition, I graduated college in December, in 3.5 years, with a double major in Political Science and Public Administration, as well as a Pre-Law designation. <br> <br>Acknowledgements <br> <br>I would have a list of people here that I'm thankful to, but its basically my friendslist, which has way too many people on it to list. Thank you very much for your friendship, you are the real reason that I play Runescape. I would like to especially thank Cutieb200473 and Mortifiier. I would like to thank Cutie for getting me interested in flipping/investing, as well as being a...clanboss? to me for 6 months, and Mortifiier for just, in general, being the coolest dude I know on Runescape...plus he has the same rl name as me!
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02-May-2010 01:44:06
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Section 2:The Persuasion <br> <br>This was written in August of 2008 and is representative of what a flipper with 30-150mil can expect. Those with lower amounts may be able to average 15% per day. <br> <br>The advantages of flipping over investing are that flipping makes more money per day, sometimes 2-3x as much as a person investing with the same amount of money, as well as the fact that your money is more available. The reason for this is that, in investing, making 5% in a day is considered fantastic, but in flipping, its simply slightly above average. Before I started doing slayer I was averaging 6% on days that I was on runescape. A few percent might not sound like a lot, but it was enough at the time that my average money made was the same as my friend who had 3x as much money. I recently started flipping again and boosted my average to 9%, with one 3-day span where I had a 30% gain in net worth. <br> <br>An investor with 10mil making 5% per day, essentially the max, will end up with 43.2 mil after 30 days. The same flipper, making an impressive 8% per day, would have 100.6mil, almost 3 times the profit. <br> <br>The main advantage of flipping is its consistant gains. Its the difference between hitting HR's/TD's 15% of the time and singles/1st downs 98% of the time. Flipping is very safe when done properly and, with 850mil, my biggest loss on flipping has been 8mil.
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02-May-2010 01:44:17
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<br/>Last edited on 05-May-2010 09:11:57 by NoSkillcape
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Section 3: Flipping Walkthrough <br> <br>Requirements: A minimum of 3-4 million gp, otherwise you may be better off mining pure essence as far as money-making per hour. Sums other than this are good if you plan on increasing your wealth and wish to practice, or if you simply wish to do it for fun. With even 1mil to start you could advance to 4mil within 2 weeks. If you need more money, check out the <20><><EFBFBD> Mega Money Guide <20><><EFBFBD> at QFC 98-99-841-60174000 for lots of great tips. <br> <br>Step 1: <br> <br>NOTE: If something goes wrong at any stage, check the Emergency section located towards the back. You are also welcome to hop into Cellerdoor, but please check the Emergency section first. <br> <br>Selecting a Type of Items <br> <br>There is no one group of items that is best for flipping. I have flipped runes, essence, logs, ore, weapons, armour, pouches, sets and even some yew roots. Discovering which items work best for you requires a decent amount of guesswork, as well as some trial-and-error. The end result is worth it however, as there are massive quantities of money to be made. Make sure the items that you select can use up, or close to, as much as you want to use on flipping. Having 2 items that use up 90% of each your money is good, but if you only have 1, that's not bad either. <br> <br>Step 2: Selecting an Item <br> <br>At this early stage, you just want to get started. As such, you want a low-risk item (such as black dhide bodies, or D Leather) that does not vary much. Those items also won't have a large profit margin, but it gets the money flowing.
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02-May-2010 01:44:28
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<br/>Last edited on 05-May-2010 09:15:14 by NoSkillcape
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Step 3: Buying <br> <br>To determine the price to buy at (if its a small-cost item) place an order at max. Take the price it buys at (max-cash back) and lower it by 1-2% for the rest of your items. Check back in 5-10minutes to see the buying rate. If none have bought, increasing your price by .5% would be a good idea. If the item simply isnt buying and you are over 2% higher than mid, I would advise that you bail on it. The risk at this point is far higher than the reward, especially for starters. <br> <br>Step 4: Selling <br> <br>Scenario A: You will be online when the 4-hour limit expires. <br> <br>When the 4-hour limit is close to expiring, you'll want to place a sell order for 1 at min. Once that sells, use the same process as you did for buying-except add 1-2%-to place your first sell order. Check back in 10-15 minutes to check the rate and adjust accordingly. <br> <br>Scenario B: You will not be online when the 4-hour limit expires. <br> <br>Place a sell order for your item at a conservative profit margin. I would suggest 2%. Log on the next day to see if it worked and lower if necessary. <br> <br>Congratulations, you just completed your first (hopefully successful) flip! <br> <br>Step 5: Now What? <br> <br>If you have a second item, you would want to repeat steps 3 and 4 for that item. If not, you would want to apply the selling scenarios of Step 4 to the buying strategies of Step 3 for your first item. In your spare time, look and test for other good items.
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02-May-2010 01:44:38
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<br/>Last edited on 05-May-2010 09:17:42 by NoSkillcape
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Section 4: Strategies and Tips <br> <br>Unlike investing, flipping profits can occur both when the item price is going up or down. Flipping when an item is going down is called reverse flipping, while flipping when an item is going up is called standard flipping. Standard flipping is generally the more profitable of the two, but only when done properly. <br> <br>Standard Flipping <br> <br>For Standard flipping, your best choice would be an item that is going up at about 2-3% per day. You should attempt to do 2 flips per day, with one occuring in between updates, and the other purchasing before the update, but selling after the update for that additional 2%. If done properly, this strategy can yield 11-12% per day. The advantage with this is the higher profit margins, but it is generally more difficult to purchase the items. Note that these percentages assume that you can use all of your money without hitting the limit. Purchase slightly above mid, sell slightly below max. <br> <br>Middle Flipping <br> <br>This works only on an item that has the Wisconsin graph; mostly flat with some slight fluctuations. The purchasing price should be about 2% below mid, and the selling point 2% above mid. If you believe that the item varies more or less than that per day, you should change your buying and selling points appropriately. <br> <br>Reverse Flipping <br> <br>Your best choice here would be an item that is going down 1-2% per day and aim to always sell before the next Grand Exchange update. 2 flips per day should be your goal and, if done properly, will average about 8% per day. The items are generally easier to buy, which makes up for the additional risk. Purchase slightly above min, sell slightly below mid. <br> <br>Long Flipping <br> <br>This strategy uses a very stable item (like the one you should have used for your first flip) or rising item to buy over the course of several limits/days and then sell when you run out of money. This method is more efficient on a 1-item basis due to not dealing with the 4-hour restrictions as much.
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02-May-2010 01:44:47
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<br/>Last edited on 05-May-2010 09:18:13 by NoSkillcape
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Production Flipping <br> <br>Purchasing an item or individual pieces of a set and creating the finished product for sale. The primary advantage used to be eliminating the 4-hour restrictions, but those loopholes are being eliminated by JaGEx. This strategy can still be used in combination with skilling to purchase multiple types of the same item and producing+flipping the finished item. <br> <br>Tips <br> <br>Tip #1 Find an item that you can make money on and stick with it. The better you know the market, the higher your profit margins. however, this doesnt mean that you shouldn't look for new items, your item may get crashed by manipulators and your expanding cash pile will need new items. <br> <br>Tip #2 Do something else when you flip, like skilling or questing. <br> <br>Tip #3 Dont purchase at significant points such as min, mid, max, or round numbers. A lot of other people do that too, so you will get your items faster if you add that 3,372gp onto that 500k item. <br> <br>Tip #4 Dont ask me or random people in the chat what to flip. You will probably be the 312th person to do so that day, and it gets annoying. <br> <br>Tip #5 Be patient. If your item does not sell right away, it is probably due to the 4 hour restrictions. If it's been a few hours and none of your items have sold, then think about adjusting the price. It should also take roughly 20 minutes to buy/sell the full limit of an item, +/- 10 minutes. <br> <br>Tip #6 If you dont feel like guessing the price, stagger the range you believe the item inhabits with guesses about .5% apart and leave it for 10 mins. The lowest/highest that buys should be your purchasing/selling point. <br> <br>Tip #7 If you have 2 items that occupy most/all of your money each, staggar the purchases so that you are buying one while you are selling the other. This nearly doubles your profit margin. <br> <br>Tip #8 Use your empty GE slots to the greatest advantage to maximize your profits by flipping multiple items.
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02-May-2010 01:44:57
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<br/>Last edited on 21-May-2010 07:17:58 by NoSkillcape
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Tip #9 Sometimes you'll have an off day (or week) where you can't predict the graphs or hit the prices that items are selling for. In this case, you should step away for a while, or see if your friends can help you during your dry streak. This happens to everyone and the worst thing you can do is try and force it. Forcing it usually ends up in losing money. <br> <br>Section 5: The "1x Test" <br> <br>Overview <br> <br>The 1x test uses an item purchase in order to discover what the REAL median for the item at that instant is. This generated med. is then used to determine what prices to buy/sell the item at. <br> <br>For flipping this is used to generate a spread of purchase points and is the fastest when you already know the profit margin. The lowest price that the item purchases at is then used to calculate the differential in order to generate a sell price. <br> <br>For investing this is usually used to determine if an item is still crashing/bought out. <br> <br>How to do it <br> <br>Put a buy order for an item in at max (or a sell at min). <br> <br>It will either sell at max, or a different price. Use the price that it sold for as your new med. <br> <br>Flaws <br> <br>1. The 1x test can be costly when used on low-limit/high value items. This is because the opportunity cost (the profit lost by not buying that 1 item 1-2% lower) of determining the med. tends to be higher. <br> <br>2. Low-volume items fluctuate wildly, leading to accurate 1x's that are wrong after even 10 minutes. <br> <br>3. Some items have a sale pattern shaped like a tadpole (lots bought and sold around mid and a long range in the direction the item is going). This leads to inaccurate sell points off of the extrapolation. <br> <br>Conclusion <br> <br>The 1x is a valuable tool in the merchanters belt, but should not be relied on without questioning.
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02-May-2010 01:45:08
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<br/>Last edited on 21-May-2010 06:28:57 by NoSkillcape
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Section 6: Flipping Emergencies and GE Limits <br> <br>In case of emergency, Pull HERE <br> <br>This section is in case your flip fails. Each of these situations has their own level of hazard ranging from the annoying to the catastrophic. Note that these are general situations and the advice may not work for you. <br> <br>When in doubt, sell. There are plenty of other items out there and the last thing that you want is to have all your money tied up for a week waiting for it to go back up. <br> <br>Item Fails to Purchase <br> <br>Usually this means that the price that you have selected is too low. If this is true simply raise the price by about 1%. <br> <br>However, sometimes you get the "kiss of death". When your order goes in, you instantly purchase ONE of the item for absolute minimum. You will not be able to purchase any more for a while. The time limit is unknown, as is what triggers it. If there is another item that you flip, you should start that one if possible. This glitch may have been fixed. Post if you get it please. <br> <br>All Items Immediately Purchase <br> <br>This is not necessarily a bad thing. If this happens DO NOT PANIC. If the item IS crashing 15 minutes wont matter and if it isnt, you might blow a big profit opportunity. Go to the graph and evaluate it and determine whether it was a fluke investor dropping out, or a possible shift in the direction the item is going. Other things that might help include checking the forums and talking to fellow investors. <br> <br>This is most likely to happen in volatile items (items that shift direction quickly and without warning), if your item is not one of those, it was probably just a fluke investor.
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02-May-2010 01:45:20
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<br/>Last edited on 21-May-2010 06:13:01 by NoSkillcape
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Item Buys Slowly, Then Stops <br> <br>Congrats, you've just been cut off. A rival purchaser either submitted a new order, or a person you cut off resubmitted theirs. My advice is to not modify your offer, they will hit the limit in 10-20 mins and you will start buying again. <br> <br>Item Declines <br> <br>If you are doing a Standard flip and your item starts to decline by a small percentage, an immediate analysis must take place. If the graph is of the Mountain type, immediately sell the item for as much as you can get (min if necessary). If it is a Hill or Ocean Wave graph, sell the item slighly under mid price and consider reverse flipping it. <br> <br>If it declines by a large percentage (4-5%) put it in the G.E. for minimum and run around yelling for an appropriate period of time. <br> <br>Item Fails to Sell <br> <br>In most cases this means that you are asking for slightly too much. Lower your asking price by a fraction of or a whole percentage point and it should sell. Evaluate as to whether it may start declining. If it doesnt sell and is a small item sell ONE at min in order to make sure it isn't crashing, but otherwise keep lowering the price by .5-1% every 15mins or so.
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